Articles • epinowcast

Discretised distributions: Distributions and their discretisation in epinowcast
Getting Started with Epinowcast: Nowcasting: A quick start example demonstrating use of epinowcast to nowcast hospital admissions.
Model Features Summary: Quick reference to package capabilities
Hierarchical nowcasting of age stratified COVID-19 hospitalisations in Germany: A case study exploring hierarchical models of varying complexity to jointly nowcast age stratified COVID-19 hospitalisations in Germany.
Comparing Inference Methods: A comparison of NUTS sampling, pathfinder approximate inference, and pathfinder-initialised NUTS across two model specifications.
Model definition and implementation: Model formulation and implementation details
Case studies: A place to document how epinowcast has been used
Visualising Preprocessed Data: Understanding reporting patterns before model fitting.
Estimating the effective reproduction number in real-time for a single timeseries with reporting delays: A walk through of a simple approach to jointly estimating the effective reproduction number over time and the delay from a positive test to this test being reported.
Resources to help with model fitting using Stan: How to address issues you may encounter with Stan
Temporal aggregation guide: How to fit nowcasts when the data and process timesteps differ, including pure weekly, weekly reporting on a daily process, and a daily benchmark.